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标题：PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
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作者：Herni Utami ; Yunita Wulan Sari ; Subanar Subanar 等
期刊名称：MEDIA STATISTIKA
印刷版ISSN：1979-3693
电子版ISSN：2477-0647
出版年度：2019
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：214-225
DOI：10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225
出版社：MEDIA STATISTIKA
摘要：This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
关键词：Forecasting model;Singular Spectral Analysis;Linear Recurrent Formula;Electricity demand;Forecasting model;Singular Spectral Analysis;Linear Recurrent Formula;Electricity demand