文章基本信息

标题：Scenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment model
本地全文：下载
作者：Roger Samsó ; Ignacio de Blas ; Ilaria Perissi 等
期刊名称：Energy Strategy Reviews
印刷版ISSN：2211-467X
出版年度：2020
卷号：32
页码：100582-100594
DOI：10.1016/j.esr.2020.100582
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：Today's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulations with the MEDEAS model at European Union scale to assess how the uncertainties on the main drivers of the transition affect key socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In addition, One-at-a-time sensitivity exploration is performed to grade the contribution of a set of model parameters to the uncertainty in the same key indicators. The combination of the uncertainties in the model drivers magnify the uncertainty in the model outputs, which widens over time. Parameters affecting sectorial and households' energy efficiency and households' transport energy use ranked amongst the most impacting ones on simulation results.
关键词：Energy transition ; Sustainability ; Python ; Vensim® ; Factor prioritization ; Euclidean distance ; Sensitivity analysis ; Uncertainty analysis ; Policy-making ; Integrated assessment models