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标题：Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities
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作者：Sun-Young Kim ; Seon-Ju Yi ; Young Seob Eum 等
期刊名称：Environmental Health and Toxicology
电子版ISSN：2233-6567
出版年度：2014
卷号：29
DOI：10.5620/eht.2014.29.e2014012
语种：English
出版社：Korean Society of Environmental Health and Toxicology
摘要：Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study,performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 µm in diameter (PM10) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages,we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation,cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2 ) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 µg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 µg/m3,respectively). Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23,respectively,whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general,the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea,but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance,future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics.
关键词：Exposure prediction;Health effect;Kriging;Long-term exposure;Particulate matter