文章基本信息

标题：Measuring the Change by Using Markov Chain Approach in Time-Dependent Transitions and a Real Data Application
本地全文：下载
作者：Nihan Potas ; Cemal Atakan
期刊名称：Sakarya University Journal of Science
印刷版ISSN：1301-4048
电子版ISSN：2147-835X
出版年度：2019
卷号：23
期号：4
DOI：10.16984/saufenbilder.477181
语种：English
出版社：Sakarya University
摘要：In this study, the use of the Markov chain to measure the change in time-dependent transitions is emphasized. Contingency tables were used to measure the time-dependent change of categorical data. Theoretically how to apply the Markov chain in the log-linear model with the help of one-step or higher-step transition matrices was demonstrated. In addition, the stationarity approach and the assessment of the order of the chain were given as the assumption of the model. In the real data application, 1217 undergraduate students, studying in Faculty of Political Science, Engineering, Science departments of Ankara University, were used. It was taken their cumulative average grades for 4 years, average grades for 8 semesters, beginning in the academic year 2013-2014.Whether the change in the success of the students is measurable in 8 semesters and 4 years, has been investigated. According to the results, before making any prediction: it concluded that one-step transition probabilities are not stationary and the three-step transition matrix is the second-order Markov Chain.
关键词：Contingency tables;Markov Chain;Log-Linear Analysis;Multinomial Distrubution