文章基本信息

标题：Family businesses and predictability of financial strength: a Hungarian study
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作者：Judit Sági ; Nick Chandler ; Csaba Lentner 等
期刊名称：Problems and Perspectives in Management
印刷版ISSN：1727-7051
电子版ISSN：1810-5467
出版年度：2020
卷号：18
期号：2
DOI：10.21511/ppm.18(2).2020.39
语种：English
出版社：LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"
摘要：The aim of this study is to examine how bankruptcy prediction models forecast financial strength for family businesses. Three predictive tests are used to study financial strength for three consecutive years (2016, 2017 and 2018) for a sample of 462,200 active Hungarian companies using the Amadeus database and expert data. Complex statistical model tests for credit assessment (bankruptcy predictions) are performed by size and ownership of the companies. It is found that the revised Altman model is impeded by a superfluous high weighting on net working capital; therefore, IN05 Quick Test predicted better chances for businesses in generating cash flows in a small emerging economy. By re-formulating the Bankruptcy Index of Karas and Režňáková and refining its coefficients, the modified Bankruptcy Index is more robust for predicting the financial health of family businesses on a cash flow basis. The test results of this modified Bankruptcy Index confirm the relative advance of family businesses in creating added value for owners. Practical implications arise from a management perspective: family businesses work better with predictability of survival in accordance with the model; therefore, their ability to adapt to financial constraints caused by crises is also more promising.
关键词：bankruptcy;capital structure;financial sustainability;predictive tests;revised Altman Z-score