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标题：The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
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作者：Sudarat Chadsuthi ; Karine Chalvet-Monfray ; Anuwat Wiratsudakul 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
期号：1
页码：1486
DOI：10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：Abstract The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.