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标题：Changes in the flooding area due to storm surge under climate change in an extensive wetland area in the southern Gulf of Mexico
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作者：Ovel Díaz-García ; Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo ; Pascal Douillet 等
期刊名称：ATMOSFERA
印刷版ISSN：2395-8812
出版年度：2020
卷号：33
期号：2
页码：105-121
DOI：10.20937/ATM.52702
出版社：Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera
摘要：Floods caused by intense cold fronts and how they could change under different scenarios of sea level rise in the Terminos Lagoon, Mexico, are studied through the analysis of observations and numerical simulations. The numerical ocean model used is the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) of the Marine Ecosystem Dynamics Modeling Laboratory of the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, and the meteorological forcing comes from high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The ocean simulations were carried out using unstructured meshes with the possibility of flooding and drying in their cells. Results of the numerical simulations were compared against observations. Considering the current mean sea level, an intense northern cold front event (or Norte) floods an area of 940 km 2 that is currently covered by mangroves. This indicates that Nortes are important in the irrigation of extensive mangrove areas. Under scenarios of sea level rise of 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75 m the flooded areas increase by 297, 1062 and 2152 km 2 , representing a considerable increase in the areas flooded at Isla del Carmen. It is suggested to consider this situation in long-term planning.
关键词：Sea level rise; FVCOM model; cold front; Términos Lagoon; mangrove wetland