文章基本信息

标题：A climate analogue approach to understanding the future climates of six South American capital cities
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作者：Reinhardt Erwin PINZON ; Tosiyuki NAKAEGAWA ; Kenshi HIBINO 等
期刊名称：ATMOSFERA
印刷版ISSN：2395-8812
出版年度：2020
页码：1-30
DOI：10.20937/ATM.52794
出版社：Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera
摘要：Future climate analogues were identified for six capital cities in western South America using a novel nonparametric technique and ensemble experiments. We applied the MRI-AGCM3.2H model with a horizontal resolution of approximately 60 km, three convection schemes, four sea surface temperature distributions, and two initial conditions. All ensemble experiments were conducted under scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, in which cumulative emissions are similar to those of the RCP 6.0 scenario. The majority of future analogue cities were at lower latitudes than their respective target cities. In general, all analogues of target cities had similarity scores of 0.1–0.3. Of the six analogues, four were located in central and southern Africa, whereas the remaining two were located in South America. Projected seasonal variations in surface air temperature and precipitation in Santiago, Chile are similar to the current climate in Cape Town, South Africa, and the climate analogue for La Paz, Bolivia, is found in Oruro, Bolivia. The nonparametric method used in this study can be applied to a variety of impact assessments under a changing global climate.
关键词：West South America; multi-ensemble; climate analogue; surface air temperature; climate change; precipitation;