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标题：Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming
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作者：Vittal Hari ; Oldrich Rakovec ; Yannis Markonis 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2020
卷号：10
期号：1
DOI：10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 (± 5) million ha of cultivated areas being afected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-frst century.The occurrence is signifcantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an efective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.