文章基本信息

标题：Bettor biases and market efficiency in the NFL totals market
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作者：Kyle A. Kelly ; Yanan Chen
期刊名称：Research in Business and Economics Journal
印刷版ISSN：1941-3424
电子版ISSN：1941-3424
出版年度：2020
卷号：14
出版社：Academic and Business Research Institute
摘要：Previous research found that the NFL totals betting market is inefficient for games withthe highest posted totals and that bettors prefer betting the over in these games. We extend thisand find that the contrarian strategy of betting the under on games with a posted total of 47.5 orhigher wins 59.7 percent of the time during the 2001-2009 NFL seasons. This inefficiencydisappears when covering the 2010-2018 seasons. We provide evidence that bettors still preferbetting the over and argue that the elimination of this simple betting rule can be explained by achange in sportsbook pricing behavior.
关键词：Sports Betting Markets; Market Efficiency; NFL Totals