文章基本信息

标题：A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation
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作者：Myles R. Allen ; Keith P. Shine ; Jan S. Fuglestvedt 等
期刊名称：npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
电子版ISSN：2397-3722
出版年度：2018
卷号：1
期号：1
页码：1-8
DOI：10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8
出版社：Nature Publishing Group
摘要：While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries; temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs); complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP; denoted GWP*; which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales; including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*; implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming; better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals.