文章基本信息

标题：La predicción del fracaso empresarial en el sector hotelero
其他标题：The prediction of business failure in the hospitality business
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作者：Antonio Álvarez-Ferrer ; Fernando Campa-Planas
期刊名称：Cuadernos de Turismo
印刷版ISSN：1139-7861
电子版ISSN：1989-4635
出版年度：2020
期号：45
页码：33-59
DOI：10.6018/turismo.426031
摘要：El objetivo de este estudio es analizar las empresas concursadas del sector hotelero en España,desde el año 2007 hasta el 2017, empleando fórmulas de predicción del fracaso empresarial que sean aplicables a este tipo de actividad económica. La elaboración de modelos de predicción de la insolvencia se inició en Estados Unidos con los trabajos pioneros de Beaver y Altman en la década de los años sesenta. Después de años de mejoras metodológicas y de estudios aplicados a diferentes sectores, no se ha conseguido unificar un método por la comunidad científica, por lo que para la realización de este estudio se utilizarán las fórmulas Z de Altman de los años 1968 y 1983 y se compararán con la fórmula de Amat et al. de 2017. Los dos métodos de Z-Score aplicados a las empresas del sector hotelero en concurso de acreedores en España nos muestran un alto porcentaje de coincidencias en los ejercicios previos a la declaración oficial del concurso, siendo el de Altman el que obtiene una mejor aproximación al número total de empresas concursadas.The main goal of this study is to carry out an analysis about the bankrupt of companies in the hospitality sector in Spain from 2007 to 2017, applying prediction formulas of business failure. The development of models for insolvency prediction began in the United States with the pioneering works of Beaver and Altman in the 1960s. After years of methodological improvements and studies applied to different sectors, it has not been possible to unify amethod applicable bythe Academia. Therefore, the realization of this study has been using the formula Z of Altmanof 1968 and1983and compare them with the formula Z of Amat et al. of 2017. The two methods of Z-Score applied to the companies of the hospitality sector in Spain in bankruptcy process show us a highly percentage of matches in the exercises before the official bankruptcy process, being Altman the one that obtains a better approach to the total number of bankruptcy companies.
其他摘要：The main goal of this study is to carry out an analysis about the bankrupt of companies in the hospitality sector in Spain from 2007 to 2017, applying prediction formulas of business failure. The development of models for insolvency prediction began in the United States with the pioneering works of Beaver and Altman in the 1960s. After years of methodological improvements and studies applied to different sectors, it has not been possible to unify amethod applicable bythe Academia. Therefore, the realization of this study has been using the formula Z of Altmanof 1968 and1983and compare them with the formula Z of Amat et al. of 2017. The two methods of Z-Score applied to the companies of the hospitality sector in Spain in bankruptcy process show us a highly percentage of matches in the exercises before the official bankruptcy process, being Altman the one that obtains a better approach to the total number of bankruptcy companies.
关键词：Fracaso empresarial; concurso de acreedores; fórmula Z; sector hotelero; predicción del fracaso empresarial.
其他关键词：Business failure; bankruptcy Process; Z-Scoring; hospitality; business failure prediction