文章基本信息

标题：THE ROLE OF PALM OIL PRICE IN INDONESIA’S AGGREGATE DEMAND
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作者：Susan Sunila Sharma
期刊名称：Bulletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan
印刷版ISSN：1410-8046
电子版ISSN：2460-9196
出版年度：2020
卷号：23
期号：2
页码：161-178
DOI：10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1305
出版社：Bank Indonesia
摘要：This study examines the predictability of Indonesia’s aggregate demand using palm oil price. We conduct both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting evaluations. These evaluations are based on time-series quarterly and monthly data frequencies and cover three different forecasting horizons. Overall, we find that palm oil price predicts real GDP, consumption expenditure, total investment, net spending from overseas, while predictability of government spending is sensitive to the use of forecasting approaches and horizons.
关键词：Palm oil price; Aggregate demand; Time-series; Predictability