文章基本信息

标题：Dynamics, statistics and predictability of a simple limited-area forecasting model
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作者：F. Chomé ; S. Vannitsem ; C. Nicolis 等
期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：1999
卷号：51
期号：2
页码：222-232
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v51i2.12317
摘要：A canonical model describing the instability of plane wave solutions toward inhomogeneouslong wave fluctuations emulating mesoscale atmospheric variability is used to analyze theperformance of nested limited-area forecasting models. Comparative studies between a referencefine grid ‘‘perfect’’ model and the ones provided, successively, by a globally coarse and a nested,fine scale, limited-area one are carried out. The statistical properties of the relevant fields arefirst analyzed, and an optimal size for which the deviations between the ‘‘perfect’’ model andthe limited-area one are minimized is identified. Predictability analysis reveals that, althoughthe Lyapunov exponents of the ‘‘perfect’’ model are smaller than those of the globally coarsemodel, operational error growth proceeds eventually faster in the nested limited-area modelthan in the globally coarse one.