文章基本信息

标题：ENSO prediction experiments using a simple ocean-atmosphere model
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作者：Deng-Hua Wu ; David L. T. Anderson ; Michael K. Davey 等
期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：1994
卷号：46
期号：4
页码：465-480
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15493
摘要：A coupled model consisting of a reduced gravity ocean and an empirical atmosphere is developed to investigate predictability of ENSO. The ocean model has no seasonal cycle, and is forced only by zonal wind stress anomalies. The empirical atmosphere is constructed by using statistical techniques to relate observed wind stress anomalies directly to the sea surface temperature anomalies simulated by the model. The focus of this study is on detailed analysis of individual predictions, as well as on statistical scores from an ensemble of predictions. The model can in general successfully predict an event up to about one year in advance, but the model has little ability to predict low amplitude variability that is not related to ENSO. Predictions based on POP analysis of the ocean model data are also made for several ENSO events, with skill comparable to that of the dynamical coupled model.