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标题：Joint inverse estimation of fossil fuel and biogenic CO2 fluxes in an urban environment: An observing system simulation experiment to assess the impact of multiple uncertainties
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作者：Kai Wu ; Thomas Lauvaux ; Kenneth J. Davis 等
期刊名称：Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene
电子版ISSN：2325-1026
出版年度：2018
卷号：6
期号：1
页码：17-35
DOI：10.1525/elementa.138
出版社：BioOne
摘要：The Indianapolis Flux Experiment aims to utilize a variety of atmospheric measurements and a high-resolution inversion system to estimate the temporal and spatial variation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from an urban environment.We present a Bayesian inversion system solving for fossil fuel and biogenic CO2fluxes over the city of Indianapolis, IN.Both components were described at 1 km resolution to represent point sources and fine-scale structures such as highways in the a priori fluxes.With a series of Observing System Simulation Experiments, we evaluate the sensitivity of inverse flux estimates to various measurement deployment strategies and errors.We also test the impacts of flux error structures, biogenic CO2fluxes and atmospheric transport errors on estimating fossil fuel CO2emissions and their uncertainties.The results indicate that high-accuracy and high-precision measurements produce significant improvement in fossil fuel CO2flux estimates.Systematic measurement errors of 1 ppm produce significantly biased inverse solutions, degrading the accuracy of retrieved emissions by about 1 μ mol m–2s–1compared to the spatially averaged anthropogenic CO2emissions of 5 μ mol m–2s–1.The presence of biogenic CO2fluxes (similar magnitude to the anthropogenic fluxes) limits our ability to correct for random and systematic emission errors.However, assimilating continuous fossil fuel CO2measurements with 1 ppm random error in addition to total CO2measurements can partially compensate for the interference from biogenic CO2fluxes.Moreover, systematic and random flux errors can be further reduced by reducing model-data mismatch errors caused by atmospheric transport uncertainty.Finally, the precision of the inverse flux estimate is highly sensitive to the correlation length scale in the prior emission errors.This work suggests that improved fossil fuel CO2measurement technology, and better understanding of both prior flux and atmospheric transport errors are essential to improve the accuracy and precision of high-resolution urban CO2flux estimates.
关键词：urban CO2 emissions;biogenic CO2 fluxes;atmospheric inversion;OSSE;observation strategy;atmospheric transport error;flux error structure;