文章基本信息

标题：Temperatura e precipitação: futuros cenários do município de Taubaté, SP, Brasil
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作者：Thiago Adriano dos Santos ; Gilberto Fisch
期刊名称：Revista Ambiente & Água
印刷版ISSN：1980-993X
出版年度：2016
卷号：11
期号：5
页码：1068-1087
DOI：10.4136/ambi-agua.1896
出版社：Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas
摘要：This work quantified temperature and precipitation variations in the region of Taubate using historic precipitation data and temperature simulations (climatology from 1961 to 1990).Corrections were made based on the observational data, and simulations of future time intervals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) using a climate-model simulation.Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of 3.6°C in the average annual air temperature and an increase of 231 mm in annual accumulated rainfall (equivalent to approximately 17% of the climatological normal) for the interval 2071-2099.Moreover, in relation to seasonal distribution, there is a higher monthly average temperature increase in the spring (4.1°C) and lower in the summer (3.4°C) and a higher average daily increase in summer rainfall (1.1 mm) and smaller increase in spring (0.3 mm).There is also an increase of approximately 5 days in the daily number of days with greater than 1mm precipitation throughout the year.The analysis of the water balance showed deficits in the months of August and September and found a disparity between the input and output of water entering the territory through precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water consumption, suggesting the need to adapt to new social and environmental scenarios.
关键词：balanço hídrico regional; modelo atmosférico regional; simulação climática.