文章基本信息

标题：Improving Intervention Decisions to Prevent Genocide: Less Muddle, More Structure
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作者：Robin Gregory ; Michael Harstone ; Paul Slovic 等
期刊名称：Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal
印刷版ISSN：1911-0359
电子版ISSN：1911-9933
出版年度：2018
卷号：11
期号：3
页码：109-127
DOI：10.5038/1911-9933.11.3.1496
出版社：University of South Florida
摘要：Decisions to intervene in a foreign country to prevent genocide and mass atrocities are among the most challenging and controversial choices facing national leaders. Drawing on techniques from decision analysis, psychology, and negotiation analysis, we propose a structured approach to these difficult choices that can provide policy makers with additional insight, consistency, efficiency, and defensibility. We propose the use of a values-based framework to clarify the key elements of these complex choices and to provide a consistent structure for comparison of the likely benefits, risks, and tradeoffs associated with alternative intervention strategies. Results from a workshop involving Ambassadors and experienced policy makers provide a first test of this new method for clarifying intervention choices. A decision-aiding framework is shown to improve the clarity and relevance of intervention deliberations, laying the groundwork for a more comprehensive and clearer understanding of the threats and opportunities associated with various intervention options.