文章基本信息

标题：A Dynamic Sustainability Analysis of Energy Landscapes in Egypt: A Spatial Agent-Based Model Combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
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作者：Mostafa Shaaban ; Jürgen Scheffran ; Jürgen Böhner 等
期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2019
卷号：22
期号：1
页码：1-20
DOI：10.18564/jasss.3906
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：To respond to the emerging challenge of climate change, feasible strategies need to be formulated towards sustainable development and energy security on a national and international level. Lacking a dynamic sustainability assessment of technologies for electricity planning, this paper fills the gap with a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder evaluation in an integrated assessment of energy systems. This allows to select the most preferred strategies for future planning of energy security in Egypt, with a focus on alternative energy pathways and a sustainable electricity supply mix up to 2100. A novel prototype model is used to integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a premium decision support approach with agent-based modeling (ABM). This tool is popular in analyzing dynamic complex systems. A GIS-based spatial ABM analyzes future pathways for energy security in Egypt, depending on the preferences of agents for selected criteria to facilitate the transformation of energy landscapes. The study reveals significant temporal variations in the spatial ranking of technologies between actors in the energy sector over this period. We conclude that in order to attain a sustainable energy landscape, we should involve relevant stakeholders and analyze their interactions while considering local spatial conditions and key dimensions of sustainable development.
关键词：Energy Security; Energy Landscape; Egypt; Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis; Agent-Based Modeling; Geographic Information System