文章基本信息

标题：Simulating the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Crop Varietal Diversity in Mali (West-Africa) Using Agent-Based Modeling Approach
本地全文：下载
作者：Mahamadou Belem ; Didier Bazile ; Harouna Coulibaly 等
期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2018
卷号：21
期号：2
页码：1-18
DOI：10.18564/jasss.3690
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：This paper presents a generic, agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of crop varietal diversity at the village level in Mali under dierent socio-economic, environmental and policy scenarios. The model is designed to integrate social, economic, environmental, and policy factors . A participatory approach with scientists, farmers and policy makers has been implemented to achieve this goal. This approach combines role playing games with agent-based modelling. A set of scenarios are elaborated to evaluate the possible impacts of policy interventions and climate change on agrobiodiversity dynamics. Simulations showed how farmers manage crop varietal diversity to cope with the local climate variability for their annual crop production. The portfolio of varieties increases under stable and good climate condition and decrease under less favourable and variable climate conditions. In addition, depending on the climate condition, farmers allocate preferentially land to varieties with higher yields.
关键词：Participatory Modelling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Agrobiodiversity; Mali