文章基本信息

标题：Integrating Global Sensitivity Approaches to Deconstruct Spatial and Temporal Sensitivities of Complex Spatial Agent-Based Models
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作者：Nicholas Magliocca ; Virginia McConnell ; Margaret Walls 等
期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2018
卷号：21
期号：1
页码：1-19
DOI：10.18564/jasss.3625
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：Spatial agent-based models (ABMs) can be powerful toolsfor understanding individual level decisionmaking. However, in an attempt to represent realistic decision-making processes, spatial ABMs oen become extremely complex, making it diicult to identify and quantify sources of model sensitivity. This paper implements a coastal version of the economic agent-based urban growth model, CHALMS, to investigate both space- and time-varying sensitivities of simulated coastal development dynamics. We review the current state of spatially- and temporally-explicit global sensitivity analyses (GSA) for environmental modeling in general, and build on the innovative but nascent eorts to implement these approaches with complex spatial ABMs. Combined variance- and density-based approaches to GSA were used to investigate the partitioning, magnitude, and directionality of model output variance. Time-varying GSA revealed sensitivity of multiple outputs to storm frequency and cyclical patterns of sensitivity for other input parameters. Spatially-explicit GSA showed diverging sensitivities at landscape versus (smaller-scale) zonal levels, reflecting trade-os in residential housing consumer location decisions and spatial ‘spill-over’ interactions. More broadly, when transitioning from a conceptual to empirically parameterized model, sensitivity analysis is a helpful step to prioritize parameters for data collection, particularly when data collection is costly. These findings illustrate unique challenges of and need to perform comprehensive sensitivity analysis with dynamic, spatial ABMs.
关键词：Global Sensitivity Analysis; Variance Decomposition; Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis; Spatial Uncertainty; Coastal Hazards