文章基本信息

标题：Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
本地全文：下载
作者：Jérome Faillettaz ; Martin Funk ; Marco Vagliasindi 等
期刊名称：The Cryosphere
印刷版ISSN：1994-0416
电子版ISSN：1994-0424
出版年度：2016
卷号：10
期号：3
页码：1191-1200
DOI：10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105 000 m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local authorities to take the necessary safety measures. The break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time.