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标题：Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan
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作者：Yu-Wen Chang ; Chin-Hsiung Loh ; Wen-Yu Jean 等
期刊名称：Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1017-0839
出版年度：2017
卷号：28
期号：6
页码：815-831
DOI：10.3319/TAO.2017.02.08.01
出版社：Chinese Geoscience Union
摘要：Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944) exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault) are short.
关键词：Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; Time dependent model; Characteristic earthquake; Renewal model; Poisson; Recurrence interval;