文章基本信息

标题：The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions
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作者：THE ISMAR TEAM ; Luigi Cavaleri ; Marco Bajo 等
期刊名称：Oceanography - Oceanography Society
印刷版ISSN：1042-8275
出版年度：2020
卷号：33
期号：1
页码：42-49
DOI：10.5670/oceanog.2020.105
出版社：Oceanography Society
摘要：Venice has long suffered the effects of rising sea levels. The last two stormy seasons brought a series of events that peaked in the great flood of November 2019. Here, we analyze that November storm, showing (1) how different factors, by themselves unexceptional, gave rise to one of the worst floods in Venice’s history, and (2) that the characteristics of this event made the storm difficult to forecast accurately. We stress the need to take into account probabilistic information available from ensemble forecasts, and discuss this within the framework of Venice’s present situation. At the same time, using the 2019 Venice flooding as an example that may apply to many similar coastal locations elsewhere, we look at the future, pointing out that flooding problems can only worsen in a rapidly changing natural world.