文章基本信息

标题：Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals
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作者：H. Bâki Iz
期刊名称：Journal of Geodetic Science
印刷版ISSN：2081-9919
电子版ISSN：2081-9943
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：1
页码：121-129
DOI：10.1515/jogs-2018-0012
出版社：Walter de Gruyter GmbH
摘要：Predicting sea level rise is essential for current climate discussions. Empirical models put in use to monitor and analyze sea level variations observed at globally distributed tide gauge stations during the last decade can provide reliable predictions with high resolution. Meanwhile, prediction intervals, an alternative to confidence intervals, are to be recognized and deployed in sea level studies. Predictions together with their prediction intervals, as demonstrated in this study, can quantify the uncertainty of a single future observation from a population, instead of the uncertainty of a conceivable average sea level namely a confidence interval, and it is thereby, better suited for coastal risk assessment to guide policy development for mitigation and adaptation responses.
关键词：Prediction ; Prediction intervals ; Best linear unbiased prediction ; Confidence intervals ; Projection ; Tide gauges ; Climate change ; Risk assessment