文章基本信息

标题：Reliability Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams by Considering Uncertainty in Reservoir Water Levels and Dam Body Materials
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作者：Majid Pouraminian ; Somayyeh Pourbakhshian ; Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi 等
期刊名称：Civil And Environmental Engineering Reports
电子版ISSN：2080-5187
出版年度：2020
卷号：30
期号：1
页码：1-17
DOI：10.2478/ceer-2020-0001
出版社：Walter de Gruyter GmbH
摘要：An elaborate safety assessment of the Pine Flat (PF) concrete gravity dam (CGD) has been conducted in this paper. Structural analysis was performed by taking into account the uncertainties in the physical and mechanical properties of the dam body materials and the reservoir water level. The coefficient of variation of 5 and 10 percent and the Gaussian distribution (GAUS) are assigned to random variables (RVs). Sensitivity analysis (SA) of the RVs is done, and important parameters introduced. SA is done to identify the most influential RVs on the structural response. Also, the modulus of elasticity of concrete is the most effective parameter in response to horizontal deformation of the dam crest. The concrete density and US hydrostatic pressure height are the most effective parameters, and the Poisson's ratio is the insignificant parameter on the dam response. To be confident in the safety of the dam body under usual loading, including the dam weight and the upstream (US) hydrostatic pressure, the reliability index (RI) has been obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The RI for the coefficients of variation of 5 and 10 percent were obtained at 4.38 and 2.47, respectively. If the dispersion of RVs is high, then the dam will be at risk of failure.
关键词：sensitivity analysis ; epistemic uncertainty ; pine flat concrete gravity dam ; hydro-static pressure ; failure risk