文章基本信息

标题：PENERAPAN MODEL HAZARD UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN: STUDI PADA PERUSAHAAN YANG DELISTING DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA
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作者：Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah ; I Gusti Ketut Agung Ulupui ; Ari Purwanti 等
期刊名称：MIX: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen
印刷版ISSN：2088-1231
电子版ISSN：2460-5328
出版年度：2017
卷号：7
期号：1
页码：59-79
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出版社：Universitas Mercu Buana
摘要：Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mencoba untuk mengidentifikasi variabel yang dapat meramalkan kebangkrutan perusahaan di Indonesia yang meliputi Net Income to Market Value of Total Assets (NIMTA),Total Liabilities to Market Value of Total Assets (TLMTA),Cash to Market Value of Total Assets (CASHMTA),Relative Size (RSIZE),Excess Return (EXRET),Volatility of Return (SIGMA),Stock Price (PRICE),dan Market to Book Equity (MB).Dengan menggunakan model Hazard sebagai basis pemodelan,penelitian ini mendapati enam variabel yang dapat dijadikan sebagai variabel prediktor kebangkrutan perusahaan,yakni Total Liabilities to Market Value of Total Assets,Excess Return,Volatility of Return dan Stock Price.Berdasarkan Model Accuracy,evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa model Hazard memiliki tingkat akurasi yang baik.
其他摘要：The aim of this study is trying to identify a group of variables that can be used to predict firm bankruptcy.The examined variables consist of Net Income to Total Assets (NIMTA),Total Liabilities to Market Value of Total Assets (TLMTA),Cash to Market Value of Total Assets (CASHMTA),Relative Size (RSIZE),Excess Return (EXRET),Volatility of Return (SIGMA),Stock Price (PRICE) and Market to Book Equity (MB).By using Hazard Model as a modelling basis,the result of this study found there were six variables that could be used as a predictor of firm bankruptcy,including TLMTA,TLMTAsq2,TLMTAsq3,EXRET,SIGMA dan PRICE.The evaluation of the model showed that it has a good accuracy.In accordance with model accuracy approaches,the level of accuracy of the model showed a range between 89.36-96.51 percent;Area Under Curves (AUC) of ROC Curves reached 0.8476;and the Brier Score showed a very low number which was 0.0309.
关键词：Model Hazard;Kebangkrutan Perusahaan.
其他关键词：Model Hazard;Bankruptcy Firm