文章基本信息

标题：Peramalan Inflasi di Wilayah Purwokerto dengan Metodologi Box-Jenkins
本地全文：下载
作者：Endang Setiasih ; Endang Setiasih ; Rakhmat Priyono 等
期刊名称：Eko-Regional
印刷版ISSN：1907-6827
电子版ISSN：2620-8849
出版年度：2009
卷号：4
期号：1
页码：7-14
DOI：10.20884/1.erjpe.2009.4.1.411
语种：English
出版社：Universitas Jenderal Soedirman
摘要：Basically, inflation constitutes a problem than solution because its impact to all economic conditions. Inflation phenomena in Purwokerto is necessary to research. Inflation in this region is more unstable than other cities. December 2008, even other cities had deflation situation, positive inflation occurred in Purwokerto.Estimated inflation shows that Purwokerto inflation have no trend condition. By assumption no cycles factor, statistically inflation have seasonal and irregular term pattern. From average seasonal factor, it is identified that higher inflation than other months will occur to January, February, March, June, and July. While in irregular term factor, it is identified extreme inflation was occur on March 2005, September 2005, October 2005, December 2005, and July 2008. Increasing of petroleum price was related to those extreme inflation.Inflation forecasting analysis shows better differentiation for estimated inflation is on 1st degree. From alternatives modeling, estimated inflation model is statistically better if it includes autoregressive factors for 1st and 2nd month before and moving average from 1st to 5th month before.
关键词：inflation;box-jenkins methodology;serial decomposition