文章基本信息

标题：ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONS IN GOLD PRICE WITH MARKOV CHAIN: LONG TERM PROBABILITIES
其他标题：ALTIN FİYATINDAKİ DAĞILIMLARIN MARKOV ZİNCİRİ İLE ANALİZİ: UZUN ERİMLİ OLASILIKLAR
本地全文：下载
作者：Aşkın ÖZDAĞOĞLU ; Aşkın ÖZDAĞOĞLU ; Güzin ÖZDAĞOĞLU 等
期刊名称：Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
印刷版ISSN：1301-3688
电子版ISSN：2630-6409
出版年度：2012
期号：40
页码：119-142
语种：English
出版社：Erciyes University
摘要：In the economic environments where high inflation expectations exist,there is a movement towards precious metals in order to avoid risk.Gold,one of the precious metals,is an instantly traded and commonly preferred investment tool.The cyclical and speculative effects make it difficult to forecast gold prices.Study offers an application that supports the existing forecasting methods and leads the decision maker before employing complicated analyses.In this context,it aims at analysing the gold-price-movements in detail and make some evaluations about the structure of price movements by using Markov chain.The period between 2005-2009 is examined,transition probabilities over relative frequency values –by coding price intervals- and Markov chain –through transition probabilities- are calculated.The findings indicate significant results in terms of the transition probabilities between price intervals.
其他摘要：Yüksek enflasyon beklentilerinin olduğu ekonomik çevrelerde,riskten kaçınmak amacıyla değerli madenlere yönelim olmaktadır.Değerli madenlerden olan altın,anlık işlem gören ve yaygın olarak tercih edilen bir yatırım aracıdır.Konjonktürel ve spekülatif etki
关键词：Gold Market;Price Changes;Markov Chain
其他关键词：Altın Piyasası;Fiyat Değişimleri;Markov Zinciri