文章基本信息

标题：IS FERTILITY CONVERGING ACROSS THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
其他标题：НАБЛЮДАЕТСЯ ЛИ КОНВЕРГЕНЦИЯ РОЖДАЕМОСТИ В СТРАНАХ-ЧЛЕНАХ ЕВРОПЕЙСКОГО СОЮЗА?
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作者：GIAMPAOLO LANZIERI ; GIAMPAOLO LANZIERI
期刊名称：Демографическое обозрение
电子版ISSN：2409-2274
出版年度：2014
卷号：1
期号：2
页码：110-139
DOI：10.17323/demreview.v1i2.1819
语种：English
出版社：National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE)
摘要：The article shows the importance of taking into account additional constraints of consistency when preparing the projections assumptions for a set of countries. In the case of fertility, described in this article, this may be expressed in the form of convergence between countries with which future national demographic behavior could be required — in the assumptions setting — to comply. This “international” constraint may have both theoretical and empirical grounds. The paper presents an analysis of the various concepts of convergence proposed in the literature together with the related indicators. The author's method of analysis and a new simple indicator of convergence are defined, and are used to assess the presence of convergence in the whole set of 27 countries currently belonging to the European Union. The author analyzes the possible impact of accession to the European Union on convergence in fertility for some of the EU enlargements that have occurred in the past. Finally, the implications for making assumptions in the projections exercises are discussed.
其他摘要：В статье показывается важность учета дополнительных ограничений при разработке прогнозных гипотез для группы стран. В случае рождаемости, рассматриваемой в данной статье, это может быть выражено в виде конвергенции демографического поведения стран в буд
关键词：fertility convergence; European Union; EU enlargement; projections assumptions in fertility
其他关键词：конвергенция в рождаемости; Европейский Союз; расширение ЕС; прогнозные гипотезы в рождаемости