文章基本信息

标题：OPTIMAL ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENTS IN THE FUNCTION OF ESTIMATION OF TOTAL TRAFFIC IN THE PORT OF RIJEKA
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作者：Sandra Juretić ; Sandra Juretić ; Ljerka Cerović 等
期刊名称：Pomorstvo
印刷版ISSN：1332-0718
电子版ISSN：1846-8438
出版年度：2013
卷号：27
期号：2
页码：265-277
语种：English
出版社：University of Rijeka, Faculty of maritime studies
摘要：The subject of the analysis in this paper is traffic in the Port of Rijeka, the largest and the most significant Croatian port for domestic and international public, predominantly cargo traffic, whose role, considering numerous plans for comprehensive modernisation and revitalisation of the Rijeka traffic route and hypercomplex traffic system, gains additional significance in terms of its impact on the general prosperity of the Rijeka area and the entire Croatia. The research in this paper is oriented on the analysis of the total realised traffic movement in the Port of Rijeka, according to all cargo structures in the period between 2000 and 2009, with special reference to the analysis of the container traffic trend until 2011, which has shown the highest growth potential in the North Adriatic area. Therefore, based on the analysis of the total traffic movement in the Port of Rijeka, and selected by mathematical and statistical smoothing time series models, scientifically based conclusions have been derived in the segment of selecting the optimal forecasting model of future traffic trend in the Port of Rijeka. This selection is considered relevant for making quality business decisions in the future.
关键词：Port of Rijeka; smoothing time series models; analysis; estimation and forecasting of total traffic trend