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标题：Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
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作者：Magdalena Szyszko ; Magdalena Szyszko ; Karolina Tura 等
期刊名称：Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
印刷版ISSN：1689-765X
电子版ISSN：2353-3293
出版年度：2015
卷号：10
期号：3
页码：9-26
DOI：10.12775/EQUIL.2015.022
语种：English
出版社：Institute of Economic Research
摘要：Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on infla tion forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation ex_x005f?pectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accu?racy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodol?ogy includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expec?tations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interde pendences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementa?tion.
关键词：inflation forecasts; inflation forecast targeting; policy path; inflation expectations