文章基本信息

标题：Case study on quality prediction of the ammunition stockpile reliability program based on a small amount of discontinuous data
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作者：Namsu Ahn ; Jaewoong Kim ; Minsu Kim 等
期刊名称：선진국방연구
印刷版ISSN：2635-5531
出版年度：2019
卷号：2
期号：1
页码：1-14
DOI：10.37944/jams.v2i1.39
语种：English
出版社：Institute of Defense Acquisition Program
摘要：This research proposes a new framework on reliability assessments of stored ammunition stocks. Many previous studies on reliability assessments are based on the correlation between the content of residual stabilizer and the year of manufacturing. However,it ignores the quality difference of the lot and other possible deterioration factors. In this research,we suggest a new framework which can overcome those shortcomings. To estimate the life of the stored ammunition,this research combined two popular techniques. The first one is Markov analysis and the second one is Bayes’ theorem. Markov analysis is used to represent the discontinuous experimental interval and quality difference in the lot,and Bayes’ theorem is used to overcome the circumstance that information from the experiments is limited. We obtained data from previous research article,and calculated three state transition matrix(function,non-function,stability) to apply the Markov analysis. Weights from the opinions of experts are given to three matrix,and the calculated total state transition matrix is used to estimate the long term ammunition status. In this paper,we propose a new framework which can reflect the quality degradation in lot and state-based business procedure. Also,the business reality that number of possible experiments is small and the observation period can be discontinuous are reflected..
其他摘要：일반직으로탄약은생산후장기간보란된후사용하므로주기적으로일정량의탄약을불출하며신뢰성평 가를시행하고있다.하지만여건상실험시료의수는매우적으며,실험주기역시불규리한실정이다.따라서 핑가주기및핑가걸과에대한해석을위해많은연구가진형되었으며,특히저장탄약의안정제와제조연도간 의상관판계를동한회귀분석이많이사용되있다.하지만,이러한방식의신뢰성추정은로트내탄약의품질득 성이모두같다는가정과다른품질열화요소는부시하고신뢰성추정을한다는점에서한계가존재한다.따 라서본연구는지장탄약의신뢰성평가를위한새로운프러임윅
关键词：Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program;Markov Analysis;Bayes' Theorem;Lifetime Estimation
其他关键词：저장탄약신뢰성프로그램;마코프처인분석;베이지안이론;수명주기여측