文章基本信息

标题：Procurements (Purchase or R&D) for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems
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作者：Hyuk-Ki Park ; Jinho Lee
期刊名称：선진국방연구
印刷版ISSN：2635-5531
出版年度：2018
卷号：1
期号：1
页码：1-17
DOI：10.37944/jams.v1i1.7
语种：English
出版社：Institute of Defense Acquisition Program
摘要：We perform cost analysis for evaluating alternatives to effectively defend the threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. As alternatives;THAAD;SM-3;and L-SAM are considered;and we analyze the factors affecting to the cost of acquiring alternatives depending on the way to procure them;e.g.;by purchasing;or research & development (R&D). Assuming that each alternative can be operated for 30 years;the total cost;which consists of acquiring cost;operation/maintenance cost;and R&D cost;is compared using net present value. Furthermore;we perform sensitivity analysis for maintenance rate;terrain cost and increase rate of R&D cost that involve uncertainty for the future. Cost analysis results show that THAAD incurs the highest cost and SM-3 is the most economic alternative. However;sensitivity analysis shows that priority can be changed depending on uncertainty parameters. Although our results do not directly support decision-making on the best alternative due to its various uncertainties;these can provide a guideline on economic evaluation required for public policy decision-making process;especially under the situation that all the three alternatives cannot be acquired at the same time due to the limitation of defense budget..
其他摘要：본연구는북한의탄도미사일위에더한효과적인방어체게선정을위한비용분석을수행한다. 어체계의대안으로 TTHAAD.SM-3및L-SAM을고려하였고,국외구매또는연구개발에따라대 안에대한비용분석을위한요인이다르므로이에대한대안별요인을분석하여제시하였다.방어체 게변사업주진방법(구매또는연구개발)에따라획득비용,운영유지비용,연구개발비용으로구분하여 30년간운용한다는가정하에대안빌로순현재가치름도출하여비교하였으며,불화실성을내포하는 정비유지비윤,부지비용,연구개발비용여대한민감도분석을동해대안별비용에
关键词：Ballistic Missile;Cost Analysis;Net Present Value;Sensitivity Analysis
其他关键词：탄도미사일;비용분석;현재가치;민감도분석