文章基本信息

标题：Relationship between the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Systemic Banking Crisis: The Case of Turkey
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作者：K.Batu TUNAY
期刊名称：Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
印刷版ISSN：1308-5549
电子版ISSN：2147-4206
出版年度：2016
卷号：6
期号：1
页码：681-697
DOI：10.18074/cnuiibf.307
语种：English
出版社：Çankırı Karatekin University
摘要：In this study,a two-step analysis has been done by using the annual data of Turkey's 1960-2013 periods.First,alternative credit-to-GDP gap calculations were made by using Hodrick-Prescott,Band-Pass filters,and Unobserved Components Model and their performances were compared.Reached findings showed that the credit-to-GDP gap estimations based on the Unobserved Components Model is more successful compared to others.In the second step,banking crisis experienced in Turkey in the studied period has been analysed based on Logit Model.Systemic crises and all banking crises defined as a binary variable were modelled separately.In these models,credit-to-GDP gap estimated in the first step were used as explanatory variable.The results show that the growth in the credit-to-GDP gap increases the probability of occurrence of both systemic and non-systemic banking crises.
其他摘要：Çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1960-2013 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak iki aşamalı bir analiz yapılmıştır.Önce Hodrick-Prescott,Band-Pass filtreleri ile Gözlenemeyen Değişken Modeli kullanılarak alternatif kredi açığı hesaplamaları yapılmış ve bunların perfo
关键词：Credit-to-GDP Gap;Banking Crisis;Unobservable Component Models
其他关键词：Kredilerin GSYİH Oranı Açığı;Bankacılık Krizleri;Gözlenemeyen Değişken Modelleri