文章基本信息

标题：Estimation of Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Serbia
其他标题：Ocena transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike u Srbiji
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作者：Sanja Bungin ; Marija Reljić ; Bojana Ivković 等
期刊名称：Industrija
印刷版ISSN：0350-0373
电子版ISSN：2334-8526
出版年度：2015
卷号：43
期号：3
页码：143-158
DOI：10.5937/industrija43-9076
语种：English
出版社：Economics institute, Belgrade
摘要：Transmission mechanism of monetary policy recently has been subject to several studies in Serbia.The so called "black box” of monetary policy is investigated with aim to identify the effects of transmission channel in environment where exchange rate has a dominant role in central bank operations.Therefore,it is a challenge to approach this problem in inflation targeting regime where key interest rate is expected to prevail as a main policy instrument.The study employs unrestricted Vector Autoregression model for estimating significance of exchange rate and interest rate channel. As expected,exchange rate has far more stronger influence on inflation,even though there are some signs of interest rate channel existence.Introducing Euribor as endogenous variables in VAR system displayed important impact on real variables.
其他摘要：Transmisioni mehanizam monetarne politike je u skorije vreme bio predmet nekoliko studija u Srbiji.Tzv."crna kutija” monetarne politike istraživana je sa ciljem da se uoče efekti transmisionog mehanizma u okruženju sa dominantnom ulogom deviznog kursa kao instrumenta centralnebanke.Zbog toga,i sam je izazov suočiti se sa ovim problemom kada se u režimu ciljanja inflacije očekuje veća uloga referentne kamatne stope kao glavnog instrumenta monenetarne politike.U studiji je primenjen nerestrikovani model vektorske autoregresije kako bi se ispitao značaj kanala deviznog kursa i kanala kamatne stope.Kao što se moglo i očekivati,devizni kurs ima daleko jači uticaj na inflaciju nego što to ima referentna kamatna stopa,iako ima naznaka o postojanju kamatnog kanala.Uvođenje Euribor kamatne stope kao endogene varijable u VAR sistem dolazi se do zaključka da strana kamatna stopa ima značajan uticaj na kretanje realnih varijabli.
关键词：monetary policy;inflation targeting;exchange rate;interest rate;inflation;Serbia
其他关键词：monetarna politika;ciljanje inflacije;devizni kurs;kamatna stopa;inflacija;Srbija