文章基本信息

标题：Temporary stock market bubbles:further evidence from Germany
本地全文：下载
作者：Andreas Humpe ; Mario Zakrewsk
期刊名称：Investment Management & Financial Innovations
印刷版ISSN：1810-4967
电子版ISSN：1812-9358
出版年度：2015
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：33-40
语种：English
出版社：LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”
摘要：Within the framework of rational bubbles the authors examine the existence of temporary bubbles in the German equity market between 1973 and 2014.Moreover,the bubbles are distinguished between rational price bubbles and intrinsic bubbles that arise from overreaction to fundamentals.Over the last 40 years,four prolonged periods are identified with sharp price increases in the stock market that were not matched by appropriate earnings rises.The "dotcom” boom and the run-up to the 1987 stock market crash are well documented in the literature and the empirical findings support the existence of bubbles during these periods in the German stock market.While the "dotcom” exuberance indicates a rational and an intrinsic bubble,there is only evidence of an intrinsic bubble before the 1987 crash.Furthermore,the researchers are the first to report another rational bubble process between 2009 and 2011 that has not been documented in the literature before and was followed by a 32% fall in the DAX index.However,there is no statistical evidence of a temporary bubble in the German stock market today(March 2013-March 2014).The findings might help portfolio managers to avoid investing into financial bubbles and enable central banks to counteract bubbles at an early stage by tightening monetary policy.
关键词：stock market;speculative bubbles;valuation models.