文章基本信息

标题：G7,central banking,and U.S. interest rates
本地全文：下载
作者：Gregory T. Polgar ; David A. Walker
期刊名称：Banks and Bank Systems
印刷版ISSN：1816-7403
电子版ISSN：1991-7074
出版年度：2015
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：15-23
语种：English
出版社：LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"
摘要：Central banks globally are concerned over stagnant or declining consumer prices,with the Japanese economy of the 1990’s and 2000’s serving as a warning to the havoc deflation can cause. As such,G7 central banks are in a self perpetuating cycle of accommodative monetary policy,with severe consequences for banks that alter course. As the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program ended,financial markets are fixated on how U.S. interest rates will react in the coming months and years. The authors present an inflation model estimated across the G7 countries that provides insight into the Federal Reserve’s plans to increase short-term rates and the subsequent impact on long term interest rates over the foreseeable future. This study develops a time-series/cross-section model to explain the rate of inflation across G7 economies as a function of significant economic variables. The nominal exchange rate,savings rate,debt-to-GDP ratio,current account balance, and GDP growth rate all have statistically significant coefficients to explain inflation,reflecting their impact on consumer prices. The model demonstrates the risks associated with the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy while other advanced central banks do not follow suit and the ECB implements a €60 billion per month stimulus plan. For 2013 the model predicted U.S. inflation would be 1.6 percent,which compares favorably with the actual U.S. infla?tion rate of 1.5 percent.
关键词：inflation;G7 economic policy.