文章基本信息

标题：Marine traffic,accidents,and underreporting in the Baltic Sea
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作者：Otto-Ville Sormunen ; Maria Hänninen ; Pentti Kujala 等
期刊名称：Scientific Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin
印刷版ISSN：1733-8670
电子版ISSN：2392-0378
出版年度：2016
卷号：46
页码：163-177
DOI：10.17402/134
语种：English
出版社：MUS
摘要：This paper presents an overview of ship traffic volume and accidents in the Baltic Sea with a special focus on the Gulf of Finland.The most common accidents are groundings and collisions,usually reported to be caused by human error.The annual number of Baltic Sea accidents reported to HELCOM varied from 34–54 for collisions and 30–60 for groundings.The number of yearly port calls varied from 468–505 thousand with a peak in 2008.Exact port call data could not be found for all ports and hence had to be estimated.The number of line crossingings in HELCOM AIS data was found to be a good,rough surrogate measure for the total number of port calls and could be used if more precise port call data was not available.By analyzing two separate accident databases,an estimate for accident underreporting was calculated.Different statistical methods yielded an underreporting rate in the range of 40–50%.Lastly,the true number of accidents was estimated,based on the estimated underreporting percentage for the Baltic Sea.Based on these results,the true number of true accidents should be first estimated if accident statistics are used in building or validating maritime risk models.When using such models or accidents statistics in decision–making,the underlying uncertainty in the accident statistics should be taken into account as the underreporting frequency estimates are only approximations of the real number of accidents.
其他摘要：Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kinerja investasi portofolio dan menganalisis komposisi portofolio investasi yang dapat memberikan hasil optimal.Berdasarkan hasil analisis,pengembalian rata–rata portofolio selalu melebihi target dari investasi tahunan.Perhitungan optimasi portofolio menggunakan dua asumsi,yaitu meminimalkan risiko portofolio dan memaksimalkan rata return portofolio.Rata–rata return sebelum optimalisasi portofolio adalah 11,85% dengan risiko 1,18%.Hasil optimasi portofolio dengan menggunakan asumsi risiko meminimalkan diperoleh rata–rata return dari 9.61% dengan risiko 0,68% dan rata–rata return sebesar 11,85% dengan risiko 0,68%.Sementara itu,hasil dari optimalisasi portofolio dengan menggunakan asumsi pengembalian memaksimalkan diperoleh rata–rata return sebesar 13,00% dengan risiko 1,47% dan rata–rata return 12.59% dengan risiko 1,18%..
关键词：Marine traffic;risk;accidents;underreporting;ship collisions;groundings