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标题：Some reasoning on the RELM-CSEP likelihood-based tests
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作者：Anna Maria Lombardi
期刊名称：Earth, Planets and Space
电子版ISSN：1880-5981
出版年度：2014
卷号：66
期号：1
页码：1-6
DOI：10.1186/1880-5981-66-4
出版社：Springer Verlag
摘要：The null hypothesis is the essence of any statistical test: this is basically a comparison of what we observe with what we would expect to see if the null hypothesis was true.In this work, I explore the suitability of the null hypothesis of likelihood-based tests (LBTs), which are often adopted by the laboratories of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), to check earthquake forecast models.First, I discuss the LBT in the wider context of classical statistical hypothesis testing.Then, I present some cases in which the null hypothesis of LBT is not appropriate for determining the merits of earthquake forecast models.I justify these results from a theoretical point of view, within the framework of point process theory.Finally, I propose a possible upgrade of LBT to enable the correct assessment of the forecasting capability of earthquake models.This study may provide new insights to the CSEP LBT.
关键词：Statistical tests; Earthquake forecast; Point processes