文章基本信息

标题：A Bayesian Approach to Predict the Number of Goals in Hockey
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作者：Abdolnasser Sadeghkhani ; Seyed Ejaz Ahmed
期刊名称：Stats
电子版ISSN：2571-905X
出版年度：2019
卷号：2
期号：2
页码：228-238
DOI：10.3390/stats2020017
出版社：MDPI AG
摘要：In this paper, we use a Bayesian methodology to analyze the outcome of a hockey game using different sources of information, such as points in previous games, home advantage, and specialists’ opinions. Two different models to predict the number of goals are considered, taking into account that it is the nature of hockey that goals are infrequent and rarely exceed six per team per game. A Bayesian predictive density to predict the number of the goals using each model will be used and the possible winner of the game will be predicted. The corresponding prediction error for each model will be addressed.
关键词：Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution; hockey; Poisson distribution; predictive density estimation Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution ; hockey ; Poisson distribution ; predictive density estimation