文章基本信息

标题：HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function
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作者：Zhan Zhang ; Vijay Tallapragada ; Chanh Kieu 等
期刊名称：Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
印刷版ISSN：2225-6032
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：3
页码：145-161
DOI：10.6057/2014TCRR03.02
出版社：Elsevier BV
摘要：In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme.
关键词：ensemble forecasting ; hurricane/tropical cyclone ; track/intensity verification