文章基本信息

标题：Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012
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作者：Reyna Vergara-González ; Elías Eduardo Gutierrez-Alva
期刊名称：Ensayos Revista de Economía
印刷版ISSN：1870-221X
电子版ISSN：2448-8402
出版年度：2014
卷号：33
期号：2
页码：1-32
摘要：After more than a decade of inflation targeting, it is important to evaluate its scope in terms of the inflation objectives set by the central bank in Mexico, and on the role, that inflation expectations have played in this process as a nominal anchor for prices. In particular, we contrast how often the bank deviates from its goal and investigate on the stabilization of inflation expectations in an environment of low and stable inflation, but subject to macroeconomic shocks, which are evaluated using a VAR model. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between inflation expectations and their actual values is performed, based on the Rolling Windows methodology. The results suggest that the degree of association between actual inflation and its expectations has declined over time and the effects of macroeconomic shocks on expectations are less intense during the inflation targeting period.
其他摘要：After more than a decade of inflation targeting, it is important to evaluate its scope in terms of the inflation objectives set by the central bank in Mexico, and on the role, that inflation expectations have played in this process as a nominal anchor for prices. In particular, we contrast how often the bank deviates from its goal and investigate on the stabilization of inflation expectations in an environment of low and stable inflation, but subject to macroeconomic shocks, which are evaluated using a VAR model. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between inflation expectations and their actual values is performed, based on the Rolling Windows methodology. The results suggest that the degree of association between actual inflation and its expectations has declined over time and the effects of macroeconomic shocks on expectations are less intense during the inflation targeting period.
关键词：Política Monetaria;Objetivos de Inflación;Expectativas de Inflación
其他关键词：Monetary Policy;Inflation Targeting;Inflation Expectations