文章基本信息

标题：Assessing the Local Developmental Impact of Hydrocarbon Exploitation in a Mature Region: A Random Forest Approach
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作者：Vlad-Cosmin BULAI ; Alexandra HOROBEȚ
期刊名称：European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
电子版ISSN：2067-3795
出版年度：2019
卷号：11
期号：2
页码：1-12
DOI：10.24818/ejis.2019.05
出版社：Academy of Economic Studies (ASE)
摘要：The impact of natural resource exploitation has been a controversial topic, subject to intense debate. Theliterature has traditionally focused on its consequences on national socioeconomic development. Morerecently, scholars concentrated on local effects following greater availability of data at the subnational andproject level. We add to the literature by concentrating on Romanian oil and gas operations, a mature regionwith a long history of hydrocarbon activities. Such regions have seldom been studied and we argue that inlight of the ongoing energy transition these should garner greater interest, particularly those located withinthe European Union where environmental pressure is significant. Our methodology consists of testing theability of the random forest classification algorithm to distinguish between local communities with oil andgas operations present and those without on a number of indicators which could be broadly considereddevelopmental. The algorithm fails to accurately classify hydrocarbon-intensive communities, indicating thatthere are no significant differences between these and the rest. We argue that this is likely due to the limitedtax collection powers of local governments, with royalties going directly to the central government with nospecific distribution provision at the local level. Another potential explanation may be the diversification oflocal economies and existing related manufacturing and services activities..
关键词：random forest; resource curse; hydrocarbon; extractive industry; local;development