文章基本信息

标题：Growth and Volatility: An Analysis for the Brazilian Economy
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作者：Elano Ferreira Arruda ; Felipe de Sousa Bastos ; Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar 等
期刊名称：Theoretical Economics Letters
印刷版ISSN：2162-2078
电子版ISSN：2162-2086
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：7
页码：2626-2635
DOI：10.4236/tel.2019.97165
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：This paper aims to analyze if there is a relationship between economic growth and the volatility of that growth in the Brazilian economy, and, if it exists, to infer if that relationship is positive or negative, since the literature shows evidence for both cases. For that purpose, the econometric strategy used is that of a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model, using economic growth data compiled by the Central Bank of Brazil, for the period of 1995-2018. The results corroborate the findings of the empirical literature, suggesting a negative relationship between economic growth and its volatility; that is, the hypothesis of the irreversibility of investments prevails. Therefore, the tradeoff between short-term stability and long-term growth for the Brazilian economy in the analyzed period does not seem to occur..
关键词：Economic Growth;Volatility;GARCH;M