文章基本信息

标题：The Impact of Inflation on the Automobile Sales in South Africa
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作者：Retius Chifurira ; Innocent Mudhombo ; Marian Chikobvu 等
期刊名称：Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences
电子版ISSN：2039-2117
出版年度：2014
卷号：5
期号：7
页码：200-207
DOI：10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n7p200
出版社：Mediterranean Center of Social and Educational Research (MCSER)
摘要：This paper analyses the relationship between inflation (INF) and Automobile sales in South Africa by using the co-integration and causality tests. The analysis has been conducted using monthly data over the period 1960:1 through 2013:9. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test indicates that the two series are stationary in the first-difference not in level. The Johansen-Juselius co-integration test show that INF and new vehicle sales (NVS) are co-integrated in the long run, hence, long-run equilibrium exist between the two variables. This study, using the Granger-Causality test has found that there is one-way causal effect (unidirectional causality) running from INF to NVS at 5% level of significance. Given that the automotive industry contributes 6% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creating more than 300 000 jobs, South Africa must double its efforts in managing inflation at very low levels.
关键词：Inflation;New Vehicle Sales;Co-integration;Causality test;South Africa.