文章基本信息

标题：Future retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier
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作者：Guillaume Jouvet ; Matthias Huss
期刊名称：Journal of Glaciology
印刷版ISSN：0022-1430
电子版ISSN：1727-5652
出版年度：2019
卷号：65
期号：253
页码：869-872
DOI：10.1017/jog.2019.52
出版社：Cambridge University Press
摘要：We model the future evolution of the largest glacier of the European Alps – Great Aletsch Glacier, Switzerland – during the 21st century. For that purpose we use a detailed three-dimensional model, which combines full Stokes ice dynamics and surface mass balance forced with the most recent climate projections (CH2018), as well as with climate data of the last decades. As a result, all CH2018 climate scenarios yield a major glacier retreat: Results range from a loss of 60% of today's ice volume by 2100 for a moderate CO 2 emission scenario (RCP2.6) being in line with the Paris agreement to an almost complete wastage of the ice for the most extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Our model results also provide evidence that half of the mass loss is already committed under the climate conditions of the last decade.
关键词：Climate change; ice dynamics; mountain glaciers