文章基本信息

标题：Brexit and EU Common Agricultural Policy: The possible consequences for Lithuania
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作者：Volkov A. ; Baležentis T. ; Morkūnas M. 等
期刊名称：Economics & Sociology (Ternopil)
印刷版ISSN：2071-789X
电子版ISSN：2306-3459
出版年度：2019
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：1-17
DOI：10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-2/20
出版社：Centre of Sociological Research
摘要：This paper examines the possible Brexit scenarios and their impacts on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) with particular focus on Lithuania. The paper outlines the scientific discourse on the imminent modifications of the CAP after the Brexit along with changes in the EU budget. The paper was prepared during the beginning of Brexit negotiations, with withdrawal terms not being publicly disclosed. Thus, the most likely assumptions have been accepted in order to model the scenarios. The possible effects of Brexit on the agriculture of the small EU Member States are discussed taking the case of Lithuania as an example. The empirical analysis showed that, in the case of three different Brexitinduced CAP modifications, Lithuanian agricultural sector may lose 1% to 20% of financial support under the CAP direct payment mechanism. The corresponding loss under these scenarios is quantified for agricultural sectors of all the EU Member States.
关键词：Brexit; common agricultural policy; scenario modelling; Lithuania;