文章基本信息

标题：Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?
本地全文：下载
作者：Michael Dotsey ; Shigeru Fujita ; Tom Stark 等
期刊名称：International Journal of Central Banking
印刷版ISSN：1815-4654
出版年度：2018
页码：43-92
出版社：IJCB Publications Fulfillment
摘要：This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips-curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. Significantly, we also find conditional inferiority, with some exceptions. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric—Phillips-curve forecasts tend to be more accurate when the economy is weak and less accurate when the economy is strong. Any improvement we find, however, vanished over the post-1984 period.