文章基本信息

标题：Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year
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作者：Nathanael M. Thompson ; Aaron J. Edwards ; James R. Mintert 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
印刷版ISSN：1068-5502
出版年度：2019
卷号：44
期号：3
页码：571-590
出版社：WAEA
摘要：This paper re-evaluates practical methods of forecasting corn and soybean basis in the easternCorn Belt. The accuracy of forecast methods differs over the course of the crop-marketing year. Atharvest, historical moving average forecasts perform best. Post-harvest forecasts may be improvedat short forecast horizons (<8–12 weeks ahead) by combining historical moving averages andrecent basis levels. Results suggest that using 3-to-5-year moving average forecasts for corn basisand a 2- or 5-year moving average for soybean basis from harvest through April. The accuracy ofthese corn and soybean basis forecasts decreases markedly during the summer months.
关键词：basis forecasting; crop basis; current information; forecast error regression model;moving averages; naïve forecast